Monday, March 28, 2016

Reality

Rochester is clearly reputationally challenged, as are cities in a wide swath of land surrounding Rochester.  What many don't realize is that these once great and now rebuilding cities offer the educational and cultural amenities of much better-branded locations, usually with a higher dose of urban blight, but generally at a lower cost and with less hassle.  However, to lend credibility to this blog, it has to be admitted that reputation does have a basis in reality.  While overall trends in the region are fueling optimism, reminders of our Rust Belt location are still alive and well.  Here are two examples of worrisome, though hopefully short-term, findings (and some rationalization as to why Rochester will be just fine.)

  • From 2014 to 2015, the Rochester metropolitan area lost 1,724 residents.  (Rationalization: if the data is assessed from 2010 to 2015, the metro area is still up by 2,283 residents.  Furthermore, Monroe County is still up 5,256 residents from 2010, meaning a good chunk of population loss is coming from outlying counties and not the heart of the region.  Finally, another key county to the region, Ontario County, was one of only three counties in the state to have added more new residents since 2010 from other places than it lost to other places.)
  • From February 2015 to February 2016, Rochester lost 4,400 private sector jobs.  (Rationalization: a state labor analyst found the numbers "suspicious" as they were not in line with other employment indicators.  Furthermore, as per the Democrat and Chronicle, the region (hopefully) has a few thousand jobs in the pipeline.)

1 comment:

  1. Another positive sign is that our unemployment rate is at 4.8%. That is lower than it was a year ago and lower than the US rate. Everywhere I go, I see help wanted signs. We just need people to fill those open roles to get the employment #s going the right direction.

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